Holy Roman Empire

France and Russia had their secret contacts, and England and Austria also never ceased their connections. It was just that everyone tacitly understood and pretended not to see.

If things were taken too seriously, one would end up with no friends at all.

The international relations of the late 19th century had become a tangled mess. France and Austria were opposed on Central European issues but agreed on Central Asian ones.

Although their motives differed, both aimed to incite an Anglo-Russian war to weaken their rival's power.

Conversely, Britain and Russia were nearly the same. They were on the verge of conflict in Central Asia, and their positions on Central European issues were nearly identical, aiming to have France and Austria fight each other and prevent either from becoming dominant.

...

London

Despite knowing that France and Russia had long been flirting behind the scenes, the news of the French issuing bonds for the Russians still caused strong dissatisfaction within the British Government.

Prime Minister Gladstone, frowning, asked, "Issuing bonds for the Russians at this time, what are the French trying to do?"

The timing was too sensitive—earlier or later would have been fine, but they chose the moment when England and Russia were falling out, making the intended challenge all too obvious.

Foreign Minister George explained, "The French are retaliating. We had promised to support their expansion of influence in Central Europe, but when they sought coal interests in Prussia and Germany, the government opted for neutrality."

Was it truly just "neutrality"?

The answer was: no!

If the British Government hadn't fanned the flames; hadn't secretly held back the French; the European anti-French wave wouldn't have erupted so easily.

Perhaps in the eyes of the British Government, not directly opposing was already the greatest support France could receive.

Secretly encouraging Prussia and Germany and sending ambiguous warnings to the French government, these actions of pulling the rug out from under someone were just professional habits, nothing too serious at all.

For the French government to react fiercely to such allies would have been the real issue.

After all, it was a mutual exploitation, with neither party truly regarding the other as an ally—it was no surprise for some secret undermining to take place.

In fact, from the very beginning, the British had dug a pit. Supporting French "expansion of influence" did not equate to supporting territorial expansion, as these were two entirely different concepts. Continue reading on My Virtual Library Empire

Perhaps during negotiations, to cheat someone, diplomats might speak ambiguously or make oral promises. But nothing in writing ever supported the French territorial expansion into Central Europe.

The French Empire had already grown very powerful, and if allowed to expand further, filling its last shortcoming, a new surge in strength was inevitable.

A mere Channel separates England and France; if France were to continue to grow stronger, Britannia would truly lose sleep over it.

Prime Minister Gladstone rubbed his forehead. This explanation left him speechless, as from Britannia's perspective, there was no problem in hindering the French.

England and France, ancient enemies for centuries, could not be resolved by a mere treaty. Containing the growth of France had always been the British Government's primary task.

Although Austria and Russia were also enemies, due to the distance, the British Government did not feel it as acutely.

If the Tsarist Government wasn't eyeing the Central Asian region, threatening India's safety, the two would not have confronted each other directly.

After hesitating for a while, Prime Minister Gladstone made his request, "Find a way to give the French something to do.

They must not be left idle to hinder us, and at the same time, they must keep Austria in check."

To meet these two criteria, only letting France and Austria scrap with each other would do. Sowing discord, a trick the British excelled at all along.

Given the current relationship between France and Austria, there seemed to be no need to continue sowing discord, simply intensifying the conflict would suffice.

After plotting for a while, Foreign Minister George nodded, "No problem, the Foreign Office will find them something to do promptly.

However, doing so will completely push Prussia and Germany to Austria's side. Given Habsburg's ability to rally allies, the French will likely suffer a disadvantage."

It was over Prussia and Germany that France and Austria had started fighting, and once the conflict escalated, those two at the center of the storm would not be able to disengage.

Even due to the French government's lack of discretion, their international reputation took yet another hit, and as their neighbors, it was impossible not to worry.

Against such a backdrop, once European tensions rose, even if Austria did not act, European countries would push Austria to counterbalance the French.

Without war breaking out, a bickering France and Austria would put the isolated French government at a disadvantage.

As for if a war truly broke out, George could not predict the outcome. After all, the French's reputation was formidable, and Austria's strength was robust with many potential allies.

Prime Minister Gladstone scoffed, "How will they know our importance if they don't suffer a little?

Having just entered into an alliance, they hurriedly reached for Central Europe, not even knowing to pick a good opportunity.

The French have had it too easy these past years, to the point where they've become forgetful of their place, and arrogant to an unconquerable degree."

...

Compared to the British Government, in fact, Franz was even more tense about France and Russia drawing closer.

Geography dictated this; Austria was sandwiched between France and Russia. Should these two draw closer, Austria faced too great a strategic danger.

Yet with some historical experience as a lesson, Franz chose to bide his time in silence, acting as though he knew nothing.

He had not stopped the loans to Russia as revenge against the Tsarist Government for playing both sides. He also suppressed voices within the government advocating against Russia.

"Let Russia's affairs be over for now. Regardless of what the Tsarist Government has done, we will act as if nothing has happened.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs can express dissatisfaction as appropriate, but all other issues should be discussed only after the outbreak of the war between Britain and Russia."

"There will definitely be a reckoning after the fall, but the premise must be that it happens after the fall."

"If Austria acts up now and causes trouble for the Russians, how can the Tsarist Government have the confidence to compete with the British over the Afghan Region?"

"If the Russians lose the war, they will surely suffer heavy losses, and they may even squander the national fortune they have amassed in recent years all at once."

"Don't be fooled by the current apparent strength of the Russian Empire; remember, the Empire has been seriously damaged in the previous wars."

"The loss of millions of young and strong workers cannot be replaced overnight."

"Just compare the population growth rate of the Russian Empire over the last thirty years to understand the extent of the damage caused by the wars."

"Especially after the Second Prusso-Russian War, the population of the Russian Empire declined for many years in a row, and it has only just managed to stop decreasing."

"Under these circumstances, if Russia sends another one or two million troops to Central Asia and then happens to lose the war, the ruling foundation of the Tsarist Government will be shaken."

"Of course, if they win the war, all these problems will be negligible. Victory can suppress all dissent, and with the Afghan Region secured, the Tsarist Government will unite to strive for India."

"The problem is, it's easy to take over Afghanistan, but not so simple to assimilate the Afghan Region."

"Unless they follow Austria's policy of native relocation and move the locals away."

"Otherwise, with guerrillas wreaking havoc inside and the British covetously watching from outside, the Russians will never have peace."

"All Austria needs to do is give them a little push at the right time. Though it's a bit despicable to undermine an ally like this, it was the Russians who first cozied up to the French."

"…"

Minister of Agriculture Hols reminded, "Your Majesty, according to data collected by the Ministry of Agriculture, the grain self-sufficiency plans of both England and France have achieved phased results."

"Especially the French with their large farm project, which has developed rapidly in French African territories after the French government replaced a batch of colonial officials."

"If nothing goes wrong, France's grain shortfall this year will be reduced to within 1.8 million tons, and it won't be long before they achieve grain self-sufficiency."

"However, it is said that the operating costs of the farms established by the French in Africa are high, and only a few can break even, with most relying on financial allocations."

This result did not surprise Franz.

"The main reason for the grain shortage in France is the Italian Area; the grain supply in their mainland is actually sufficient."

"To reduce foreign exchange expenditure, in recent years, farms have been established in places like Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia to bridge the grain gap—it is only a matter of time."

"As for the high operating costs of the farms, that was to be expected. The areas in French Africa suitable for agriculture are limited."

"Many places are already owned, and the owners can't all be driven out, right? Many local landowners have long become French colonists."

"Besides seizing some of the indigenous lands, most of the farms were directly established by the French government, and many are in areas with less than optimal natural conditions—they are just barely passable."

"If the irrigation facilities are perfected, the subsequent problems should be minor. However, all of this requires time, and won't be settled shortly."

"In the short term, these farms depend on the weather for grain production, and thus yields can't be very high. Coupled with the management by the bureaucrats, which adds a significant additional cost, operating at a loss is the norm."

Franz nodded, "The timing is about right, the promotion of potash fertilizers also needs time, there's no need to keep hiding it."

"Introducing fertilizers at this time, Austria certainly won't lose the most."

"Affected by the decline in international grain prices, Austria has been reducing its main crop planting area in recent years."

"Apart from meeting domestic consumption, it has scarcely exported anymore. Domestic grain-processing industries have begun to import grain from Russia heavily."

"In some sense, the rebound in the Russian economy under the backdrop of falling international grain prices was caused by Austria's policy of reducing grain production."

"However, these good days are about to be gone forever. No matter how much Austria reduces its capacity, its agricultural volume remains."

"Even with the current potash fertilizers, which are not as effective as those of the future, increasing grain production by only five percent is enough to feed six or seven million people."

"The extra yield definitely needs to be absorbed by the market."

"With England and France practicing self-sufficiency, the international grain market is not growing but rather shrinking."

"Any domestic grain surplus will definitely be prioritized for Austria's own use, and it will be much harder for the Russians to find buyers."

"The reality is likely to be even worse; with potash fertilizers unable to be kept secret, European countries will start to emulate the practice."

"As grain production capacity increases across various countries, the international grain market will shrink dramatically, and prices will continue to fall."

"In some ways, this is akin to smashing your own pot. Austria can find ways to increase grain consumption and get through the agricultural crisis, but the Russians will be out of luck."

"Just as the war between Britain and Russia ends, an agricultural crisis erupts, dooming the Tsarist Government to tighten its belt for many years to come."

"Franz can swear to God that the tactic of inflicting a thousand damages on the enemy at the cost of a hundred to oneself was never originally intended against an ally."

"It was planned to start smashing the pot as soon as England and France achieved grain self-sufficiency, dragging everyone into an era of grain cost competition."

"Alas, plans cannot keep up with changes, and it was only at the time of implementation that it suddenly became clear that, it seems, the Russian Empire is the biggest victim."

"There's no other reason; England, France, and Austria are industrial nations with supporting industrial chains, only the Tsarist Government is heavily dependent on agriculture."