Chapter 75: Crisis
St. Petersburg, ever since receiving news of the French's grand farming plan, Alexander III's face had seldom shown a smile.
Now, having received news that the British Parliament had passed the "Food Self-sufficiency Plan," one could imagine what Alexander III's mood was like.
There was no choice, as food exports were simply too important for the Russian Empire. Not only did they comprise the largest share of the nation's foreign income, but they also involved the livelihoods of tens of millions of people.
Since Alexander II completed agricultural reforms, the Russian Empire had been trapped in an embarrassing surplus of food supply, apart from the years during the Prusso-Russian War when the Tsarist Government worried about finding markets for its grain every year.
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This was related to a decree from the time of Alexander II.
At the time, in preparation for the Second Prusso-Russian War and coinciding with an agricultural crisis, the public had difficulty selling their grain and paying their taxes, so Alexander II ordered that peasants be allowed to pay their taxes with grain.
This policy allowed the Tsarist Government to collect enough military provisions in the shortest time possible, laying the foundation for winning the Second Prusso-Russian War.
The aftermath was that the Tsarist Government had to receive a large quantity of grain each year, especially in remote areas, where almost all peasants paid their taxes with grain.
It was now impossible to revert to the original system. Transportation in Russia was extremely poor and grain from remote areas simply couldn't fetch a good price; in certain regions, it couldn't even be sold, making it far more cost-effective to submit it as tax in kind.
If this decree were to be abolished, it would mean going against tens of millions of peasants, something Alexander III naturally dared not do.
Decades ago, if the Tsarist Government had this much grain, it would have gone on a rampage across the European Continent, stopping at nothing.
Unfortunately, times had changed, and now the Tsarist Government's greatest desire was to monetize the grain.
Domestically, there was no hope, as the market price of grain was already low. Releasing so much grain would surely cause the grain market to crash.
Internationally, there was also an oversupply of grain production, and combined with political factors, Russia's grain export path was not smooth.
If it had not been for Austria leading an alliance to reduce grain export volumes and stabilize grain prices, the international market would probably have been ruined long ago.
After international grain prices stabilized, the Tsarist Government breathed a sigh of relief, but the allotment given to them was still insufficient to absorb the grain they received each year.
Of course, the surplus wasn't completely wasted. The Tsarist Government thought of many solutions, such as raising livestock, brewing alcohol…
The former naturally failed; raising livestock was easy, but selling it was difficult.
The domestic market appeared large, but ordinary folks were so poor that just filling their bellies was hard enough; they simply couldn't afford it.
The international market was somewhat larger, but the problem was that live animal transport was difficult, and after slaughter, the meat couldn't be kept fresh. Cured meat did not fetch a good price on the international market.
Food safety was already fraught with risks at the time, and the four words "Russian-made products" could scare away ninety-nine percent of consumers.
This was the effect of the brand; Russian food was just that reassuring.
Food exported by other countries might have potential issues, whereas Russian exported food almost always had problems.
This was the conclusion reached by the European public through their personal experiences.
In an attempt to change this image, the Tsarist Government also made efforts, but these efforts were dashed by the combined forces of bureaucrats and capitalists.
One could refer to the market situation of meat products in Russia, where imported goods were priced high, and domestic products didn't fetch a good price.
If economically feasible, people would always opt for imported food that they found more reliable. Not just meat products, but even flour was the same.
Even though many knew that this flour was made from Russian-produced wheat exported to Austria, processed, and then re-imported, they would rather pay a higher price for peace of mind.
The development of the livestock industry ultimately benefited only the breeders in the border regions, who could drive their livestock to be sold in neighboring Austria.
Hope for industrial development should be dismissed because these livestock were labeled from the start as "Russian imports."
Once a public perception is established, it is not so easy to change.
This label directly caused these meat products to have no market in Austria. Many were processed into cured meat and canned goods, which then returned to the Russian market.
Compared to the livestock industry's failure, the Tsarist Government's burgeoning alcohol industry had become Europe's largest alcohol supplier, selling primarily cheap liquor.
Indeed, it is very cheap, and even if others wanted to imitate, it would be impossible. Because according to the market price of grain, selling these grain alcohols would not cover their costs.
Of course, being "cheap" alone is not enough to make Russia the largest alcohol supplier on the European Continent. More crucially, the Russian Empire itself is the largest consumer of alcohol in Europe.
Austria, with a similar population size, consumes less than half the amount of alcohol per year than the Russian Empire. If you calculate the consumption of pure alcohol, the gap would be even greater.
In some sense, the overproduction of grain propelled the development of Russia's alcohol culture, truly earning the country its title as the "Barrel of Liquor."
This was all forced; the Tsarist Government did not wish to be so extravagant, but with surplus grain at hand, they couldn't just let it rot in storehouses!
Just as they finally managed to deal with the surplus grain, the United Kingdom and France started causing trouble.
Although the impact was not significant in the short term, once their plans became reality, the Tsarist Government's biggest foreign currency-earning project would be lost entirely.
Alexander III, with a gloomy expression, demanded, "The British Parliament has passed the self-sufficiency grain plan without the slightest regard for our withdrawal from the free-trade system. So, who can tell me what the Austrians are up to?"
This was a very clear issue. If the British Parliament was able to pass the proposal so smoothly, then the Austrian Government definitely did not make its best efforts to stop it.
Given Austria's influence, even if it was impossible to sway the British decision, delaying the process in parliament for some time should not have been a problem.
Given recent events, Alexander III had reason to suspect that the Austrian Government made a deal with England and France behind the scenes, betraying the interests of the Russian Empire.
Foreign Minister Oscar Ximenes said, "Your Majesty, not long ago the Vienna Government released an agricultural upgrade announcement.
According to its contents, within the next five years, Austria will reduce: five percent of wheat cultivation area, three percent of potato cultivation area... to deal with the new round of agricultural crisis.
If this plan is fully realized, their domestic market alone would suffice to consume the national grain production capacity, essentially freeing them from dependence on international markets."
In essence, Franz was driven to this out of necessity. The importance of grain goes without saying, and he would fight to the end to monopolize the grain export market, even at a loss.
Regrettably, Austria now lacks the conditions to monopolize grain exports.
Even if it occupies the largest share in the international agricultural product export market, almost monopolizing it, this dominant position is not secure.
To consolidate this leading position, it must first suppress a few grain-producing countries, especially its neighbor, the Russian Empire.
The international situation changes unpredictably; today England, France, and Russia might be enemies, and tomorrow they could become friends.
On their own, the Russians do not pose a threat to the development of agricultural processing industries, but with external support, it would be a different story.
If one day the Russians reached an agreement with the French or the British, attracting a group of English and French capitalists to invest there,
Setting up agricultural processing factories in coastal cities. The consequences would be severe because, "Advanced technology + cheap industrial raw materials + cheap labor + vast markets = success."
Faced with such a combination, Austria could only passively engage in a price war, undermining its financial strength against itself.
Knowing the financial outlook was bleak and involving the interests of millions of farmers, Franz naturally couldn't just recklessly persist on this dead-end path out of stubbornness.
To minimize losses, it was natural to promote domestic agricultural transformation before flipping the table.
In this era of rapid technological advancement, reducing the cultivation area of grain doesn't equate to reducing the overall grain production capacity—these are two entirely different concepts.
Of course, from the outside, it might seem the Vienna Government was out of options and had to reduce grain production capacity to face the upcoming agricultural crisis.
With a loud "bang," the coffee cup in front of Alexander III flew out. Austria now backing down was not good news for the Russian Empire.
If they could concede in grain production, they could do the same in agricultural processing. If the United Kingdom and France truly achieved self-sufficiency in grain, Austria could also give up this part of their interests.
As the economy continued to grow, the share of agricultural processing industries in Austria's domestic economy was getting lower and lower.
Moreover, losing some foreign markets did not mean the end of the agricultural processing industry. The real impact would be limited to some grain processing enterprises like flour mills.
Other agricultural by-product processing businesses would not be affected much, so overall, the impact on the entire agricultural processing industry would be minimal.
The real unfortunate ones would be raw material exporters like Russia because processing businesses can transform or shift their losses, but the Tsarist Government had no way to transfer theirs.