Chapter 15: The Butterfly Effect
"Edge of Tomorrow"—I never expected that the script Andy mentioned would actually be Edge of Tomorrow!
In my previous life, this movie was released in 2014, starring Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt. Originally, Brad Pitt was attached to the project, but it ultimately went to Tom, with no other actors seriously considered.
However, it's only 2011 now, and the script has already been approved? And not only is Brad Pitt out of the picture, but Tom Cruise isn't attached either—it has come to me? Even though it's just an inquiry to gauge my interest, and nothing is confirmed, this development is vastly different from the past.
Is this the butterfly effect? Has the timeline been disrupted? Or is it simply an early-stage project that will still take years to materialize? Perhaps, in the end, it will still be released in 2014, with Tom Cruise leading the cast.
For now, let's set aside the implications of timeline shifts. The script was featured on the 2010 Black List, and now that Warner Bros. is moving forward with the project, it makes sense. The Black List has a reputation for identifying quality scripts, and Andy's swift action proves his keen eye.
The Story of Edge of Tomorrow
The premise is straightforward: in the future, Earth is under attack by alien invaders. The protagonist, William Cage, is an inexperienced officer with no combat experience. His superiors throw him into a doomed mission, and he dies almost immediately—only to find himself trapped in a time loop, reliving the battle over and over. Each cycle allows him to improve, refining his skills until he finally achieves victory.
Time-loop narratives have been explored before. Groundhog Day is the quintessential example, followed by The Butterfly Effect, Source Code, and The Call. Edge of Tomorrow belongs to the same lineage.
Doug Liman, known for The Bourne Identity and Mr. & Mrs. Smith, directed the film in my previous life. His sharp editing and fast-paced storytelling defined the movie's strengths and weaknesses. While the intense action sequences delivered thrilling set pieces, they left little room for character development. As a result, the protagonist became more of a masked action hero than a fully fleshed-out character. Still, the exhilarating pace and gripping battle sequences ensured an engaging experience.
Critical and Box Office Reception
Edge of Tomorrow earned strong reviews, with a Metacritic score of 71 and a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 91%, averaging a 7.5/10. Among the summer blockbusters of 2014, it stood out as a critical favorite, surpassing Transformers 4, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and How to Train Your Dragon 2 in critical reception.
However, audience reactions were mixed. While IMDb ranked it among the top 250 films and the audience approval rating was 90%, CinemaScore only gave it a "B+." This indicated a divide—critics and cinephiles loved it, while mainstream audiences were less enthusiastic.
This disparity was reflected in the box office results. With a $180 million budget, the film grossed only $100 million in North America. Internationally, Tom Cruise's star power boosted earnings to $270 million, bringing the global total to $370 million. Despite this, Warner Bros. faced a near $40 million loss. Fortunately, strong Blu-ray sales helped recoup the investment, ultimately balancing the financial outcome.
Despite its lukewarm commercial performance, the film's critical acclaim and Tom Cruise's enduring appeal prompted Warner Bros. to greenlight a sequel. However, by the time of my rebirth, the sequel had been stuck in development limbo, its future uncertain.
The Problem with Edge of Tomorrow's Box Office Performance
If the film was so well-received, why didn't it perform better financially? While expectations of a $300 million North American box office were unrealistic, it should have at least reached $200 million. Yet, it barely scraped past $100 million.
With hindsight, industry experts attributed the underperformance to Tom Cruise.
Much like Johnny Depp in The Lone Ranger, Tom had become typecast. Since Minority Report (2002), he had starred in sixteen films, eleven of which were sci-fi action blockbusters with a similar tone. After abandoning his Oscar ambitions, he followed a path akin to Adam Sandler—repeating the same roles over and over. His stardom no longer felt fresh; instead, it was predictable.
Even the Mission: Impossible series was affected. The first three films marketed Tom Cruise's charisma, while later installments emphasized his ability to defy age and push physical limits.
Before Edge of Tomorrow, Tom had starred in Oblivion, a film with a nearly identical aesthetic, tone, and premise. It flopped with a mere $89 million domestic box office. Jack Reacher and Knight and Day further cemented his repetitive image.
Audiences who had repeatedly invested in Tom Cruise's films only to be disappointed began to disengage. The minor success of Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol briefly restored faith, but that faith was quickly shattered by Oblivion.
Moreover, Tom's unwavering desire to maintain his youthful action-star image was problematic. Despite being 52 during filming, his on-screen persona remained unchanged from Top Gun (1986). His insistence on pairing with significantly younger actresses exacerbated this perception: Oblivion's female leads were 17 and 19 years his junior, while Emily Blunt in Edge of Tomorrow was 21 years younger. His last true co-star of a comparable age was Demi Moore in 1992's A Few Good Men. This created an increasing disconnect with audiences.
By 2014, Tom Cruise's ability to carry a non-Mission: Impossible blockbuster had waned. Since War of the Worlds (2005), Edge of Tomorrow was the only non-franchise film in which he surpassed $100 million domestically. The once-bankable star was now reliant on Mission: Impossible to sustain his career, much like Johnny Depp and Pirates of the Caribbean.
This explains the audience divide: critics praised the film's quality, while general audiences, expecting another generic Tom Cruise action flick, felt underwhelmed. The poor reception of Oblivion carried over, dooming Edge of Tomorrow's financial success.
Would Edge of Tomorrow Have Succeeded Without Tom Cruise?
Was there room for improvement? Perhaps. But for a commercial blockbuster, some flaws were inevitable. As long as they didn't hinder the film's overall effectiveness, they were acceptable. Ultimately, the problem lay with Tom Cruise and the factors surrounding his involvement—marketing, character portrayal, and audience perception.
But here's the real question: Without Tom Cruise, would Edge of Tomorrow have even crossed $100 million domestically?
The original production had a $180 million budget, with extensive marketing. According to Andy, the current budget is capped at $100 million, and the project itself is still struggling for approval, let alone securing major resources.
Tom Cruise didn't just bring himself to the film—he brought an entire production team. Much like Jack Reacher, he enlisted Christopher McQuarrie, his go-to screenwriter (The Usual Suspects, Valkyrie, Mission: Impossible sequels), as well as his trusted cinematographers, lighting technicians, production designers, and producers.
Without Tom, Edge of Tomorrow was an empty shell. Without him, perhaps the film would have never been made at all.